Recent Trends in Mortgage Industry Over the 17 months ranging from March, 2022 to July, 2023, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the Fed Funds rates to their highest levels in more than fifteen years. In recent weeks, the markets have been betting that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged for the near future, and […]
Recent Performance of 30 Yr. Fixed Rate Mortgages Prepayment speeds on mortgages in UMBS securities from all reviewed origination years have varied greatly by vintage over the last 30 months. 2021 and 2022 vintage CPRs have been below 10% the entire time. Older vintages CPRs have been below 10% for six to twelve consecutive months, […]
With material rapid increases in loan rates, the aggregate monthly volume of new Ginnie Mae (GNMA) insured mortgages decreased by roughly 80% during the study period. Origination volumes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in Uniform Mortgage Backed Securities (UMBS) have also been declining at a steep pace. The rate of decline of GNMA […]
With residential mortgage rates again topping 7% this week, we thought it would be interesting to look at some key industry timeseries metrics, and those of a few originators to see how they are faring in this challenging lending environment. In this article we will look at production sold into Freddie and Fannie securitizations. Next […]
Over the last few weeks, market focus has been on the liquidity of banks, with some high profile names such as Signature Bank (SBNY), Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), First Republic Bank (FRC), and others capturing the attention of regulators and investors alike. As a group, banks experienced stock market price declines, with a few having […]
In the first two Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) posts we provided an introduction to CRT transaction mechanics, structures, past originations, economic environment and security pricing. To conclude the series of CRT related posts we’ll review the latest trends in the economy, mortgage industry, and CRT securities pricing, and discuss some of the potential driving forces […]
Berkshire Group maintains databases tracking monthly originations and performance of both agency and non-agency mortgage loans. We also track industry and market metrics, and observe mortgage loan performance in relation to these metrics. We use these data and observations internally for analysis, and to support assumptions used in our valuation models. Berkshire tracks individual loans related to […]
GSE Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) Product Discussion – Part One of Three Berkshire Group maintains databases tracking monthly originations and performance of both agency and non-agency mortgage loans. We also track industry and market metrics, and observe mortgage loan performance in relation to these metrics. We use these observations and data internally for analysis, and to support […]
Introduction: Financial models, and misuse of them, have been blamed for contributing to recent economic woes. Public perception is that default of incorrectly modeled, complex financial securities played a major role in failures of banks, insurers[1], investment banks[2], and GSEs[3], and that foreclosures of poorly underwritten (using faulty credit models[4]) loans backing the securities precipitated […]
Company Overview: Founded in 1998, The Berkshire Group LP is a management-consulting firm that provides predictive modeling, asset valuation, data analysis, transaction support, and due diligence services to the financial services industry. The Company offers these services through two affiliated entities, including itself and Berkshire Advisors LLC (collectively, “Berkshire” or the “Company”)[1]. Berkshire focuses on […]
